Joe Biden is leading in the battleground state of Arizona

 Trump won this traditional Republican state against Hillary Clinton in 2016

Former Vice President and Democratic candidate Joe Biden continues to lead President Donald Trump in Arizona with support reaching the critical 50% level with less than a week before ballots are sent out, a new poll finds. Joe Biden has edge over Trump in this state which was won by Trump in 2016 against Hillary Clinton.

Trump got 48% against Hillary Clinton who got 44.5% votes. Joseph R. Biden Jr. has established a steady lead over president Trump in Arizona, a traditionally Republican but fast-changing state that is tilting increasingly Democratic, according to a latest New York Times-Siena College poll.

The Democratic nominee Biden leads 49 percent to 41 percent in Arizona, a state that hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since 1996. In the Senate race, Mark Kelly, a Democrat, leads the incumbent, Martha McSally.

If he succeeded to hold on to his lead over Trump and win the state, he will be first Democratic candidate to win this state since 1996. Bill Clinton won the Arizona state in 1996. 

 The same statewide poll found Democrat Mark Kelly with a commanding lead over Sen. Martha McSally, R-Ariz., suggesting Democrats in the state could sweep the top two races for the first time since 1944. 

Biden's lead is similar to 10 polls by others in Arizona taken completely in September. Biden led in eight of those polls, Trump led in one and there was one tie. Kelly has led in all eight of the polls taken in September, usually by high single-digit margins.

David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston, said Cindy McCain's endorsement of Biden happened just as the poll began and could be significant.

"Her endorsement really is important demographically in ways that a lot of people aren't picking up," he said, noting that her backing likely has the most impact on whites and moderates. And Biden reached the 50% mark late in the race and with only 2% of respondents undecided, he said.

In a latest poll, 56% Arizonians say the country is on the wrong track, and 53% say they have an unfavorable view of Trump, while the same share say they generally like Biden. More than half, 51%, rated Trump's handling of the pandemic as "poor."

The poll illustrates the depth of Mr. Trump’s difficulties in Arizona — an incumbent Republican president trailing by a significant margin a month before an election in which most voters have made up their minds.

Mr. Biden is winning women by 18 points and trailing Mr. Trump by only two points among men. Among likely Hispanic voters, who are expected to make up about 20 percent of Arizona’s electorate, Mr. Biden is overwhelming the president, capturing 65 percent to Mr. Trump’s 27 percent.

In 2016, over 7 percent of voters cast a ballot for somebody besides Mr. Trump and Hillary Clinton. This time, only 3 percent of likely voters said they planned to support the Libertarian Party nominee and just 1 percent said “somebody else” in the survey. Those third-party votes were pivotal to Mr. Trump, who garnered only 48 percent of the vote in Arizona.

The G.O.P.’s challenge in Arizona this year runs beyond the presidential race. The retired astronaut Mark Kelly, a Democrat, is leading Senator Martha McSally, a Republican, and 50 percent to 39 percent in the Times-Siena poll, a slightly larger advantage than in last month’s survey. Mr. Kelly was winning 50 percent to 42 percent in September.

                                                                Khalid Bhatti