Can MQM-P bring down the PTI government?
Can MQM-P bring down the PTI government?
In house change is not on the cards
PTI
government rushed to vow back the angry MQM-P. PM Imran Khan has taken notice
of MQM-Pakistan’s decision to resign from federal cabinet for not addressing
their concerns and demands. The prime Minister has directed the governor Sindh
Imran Ismail and federal minister Asad Umar to immediately address the grievances
of MQM-P leadership. MQM-P leaders are not seems happy with the PTI government
for ignoring the development work in Karachi and not fulfilling the demands of
MQM-P.
It seems that PM Imran Khan wants to keep the
ruling coalition intact. It is not just because PTI needs MQM-P and other
coalition partners to retain a majority in the national assembly but also to
keep Karachi stable and calm. MQM-P still has some support in Urdu speaking
population in Karachi.
MQM-P can
boost the opposition in the national assembly and weaken the PTI government if
it decided to sit on opposition benches. It will be political setback for PTI
government. But it will not collapse like a house of cards. The pressure will
mount on the PTI government if BNP-M decided to sit on opposition benches.
PTI needs
MQM’s support to keep pressure on the PPP government in Sindh. Without the help
of MQM-P- PTI cannot threaten the PPP to dislodge its government through
defections and forward block. MQM is the third largest party in Sindh assembly
after PPP and PTI.
The decision
of MQM-P to resign from federal cabinet once again sparked the discussion on
the vote of no-confidence against PM Imran Khan and possible in house change
through the parliament. Many people are speculating that PM Imran khan will not
last long. But these are mere speculations and conspiracy theories.
The chairman
of Pakistan People’s Party late last month had asked the MQM-P to break away
from the ruling coalition in the Center and join the Sindh government, saying
Sindh and Karachi could only get their share of development if Imran’s
government collapses.
A very
charged Bilawal had told MQM: “You can stop this injustice being done with
Karachi and Pakistan by breaking your alliance with PTI and toppling Imran
Khan’s government to save Karachi and we will fully support you. For the sake
of Karachi, for the sake of people of Karachi, we are ready to offer to the MQM
in Sindh, as many ministries as they have in the Center today.
“Bring down,
bring down...bring Imran’s government down and save Karachi,” said the PPP
chairman. His offer give rise to the speculations and conspiracy theories.
The matter
of fact it that even if MQM-P decides to join opposition parties in the
national assembly-it still cannot bring down the PTI government. The number
game suggests that opposition parties at least need the support of two other
coalition partners BNP-M and PML-Q to cause serious problems for the PTI
government.
The PTI does
not enjoy a simple majority in the 342 member National Assembly. For the
majority— 172 members required to form the government. PTI needs the support of
smaller parties to maintain the simple majority.
The MQM-P
has the largest number of MNAs compared to any other coalition partner of the
PTI. According to the NA website, the PTI has 156 MNAs, seven of the MQM-P,
five each of the Pakistan Muslim League-Q and the Baluchistan Awami Party, four
of the Baluchistan National Party-Mengal, three of the Grand Democratic
Alliance and one each of Sheikh Rashid’s Awami Muslim League and Jamhoori Watan
Party.
The total
strength of the PTI-led coalition in the lower house reached 182 and the number
game suggests that the PTI government will not fall even if the MQM decides to
quit the federal government. Opposition still needs PML-Q and BNP-M to bring
down the government through vote of no confidence.
In my
personal view- MQM will not join the opposition benches immediately to
destablise the PTI government. PTI government will be able to survive 2020. The
numbers in the national assembly suggests that in house change is not easy to
come by.
MQM-P is
just trying to exert pressure on the PTI government to make more political
gains. MQM-P wants another ministry. They want more say in the affairs of Karachi.
They want more funds for their Mayor and member parliaments. That is why they
are showing anger and displeasure.
It is not an
effort to bring down the government but to push for some demands. MQM-P is using
the same old tactics to blackmail the government.
Khalid Bhatti
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